Brazil’s fertilizer market is poised for a gradual recovery in 2027 after a sharp contraction this year, as stabilizing grain farmers’ profit margins support a rebound in demand, according to Rabobank.
Fertilizer deliveries are projected to rise 5% to 46.6 million metric tons next year, following an estimated 9.6% decline in 2026, Rabobank analysts said in updated forecasts for the 2026/27 crop season released Wednesday. Even with the recovery, volumes would remain below the record 49.7 million metric tons delivered in 2025.
The outlook hinges on an improvement in farmers’ financial conditions, which remain strained by heavy debt burdens, high interest rates and rising production costs, Bruno Fonseca, Rabobank’s senior fertilizer and farm inputs analyst, told reporters.
Uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East is adding to the pressure. With no clear resolution in sight, the conflict continues to disrupt fertilizer markets and weigh on operating margins for major agricultural commodities, Rabobank said.
The bank expects farmers’ profit margins to stabilize in 2027, extending a trend that began in the 2025/26 season. A more meaningful improvement is expected toward the end of the 2027/28 crop season, potentially marking a reversal of the current downturn.
Crop Protection and Biologicals
An improvement in farmers’ finances should also support demand for crop protection products.
RaboResearch, Rabobank’s research division, forecasts a modest expansion in Brazil’s crop protection market in 2027, with sales rising to $20.9 billion from $20.4 billion, reflecting a gradual recovery in demand.
The market for biological agricultural inputs is also expected to maintain moderate growth, expanding 4.4% year on year to more than $1.28 billion (7 billion reais), from approximately $1.22 billion (6.7 billion reais).
Brazil’s seed market is continuing to recover, according to the bank, while agricultural machinery sales are expected to remain constrained by farmers’ weak financial conditions.
Concerns Over Second-Crop Corn
Rabobank analysts also flagged concerns about the timing of nutrient imports and fertilizer deliveries ahead of Brazil’s 2026/27 safrinha corn season — the second crop planted on the same land after the soybean harvest.
Farmers growing safrinha corn and other crops will begin requiring fertilizers in January, raising concerns about whether imported supplies will arrive in time to meet demand.
Imports of urea and ammonium sulfate through the end of September were down 25% from the same period in 2025, according to Rabobank.
The bank said the shortfall is unlikely to be made up during the remainder of the year, raising the risk of supply constraints as demand for second-crop corn planting approaches.
This story was translated from the original Portuguese with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff.
