Brazil’s Center-South sugarcane crush is expected to rise 4.8% to 640.5 million metric tons in the 2026/27 season, but excessive rainfall is likely to reduce sugar yields and shift more cane toward ethanol production, according to projections released Monday by consultancy Datagro.
Sugar output is forecast to decline 5% to 38.42 million metric tons, while total ethanol production, including corn-based fuel, is projected to increase 10.4% to 37.21 billion liters.
Total recoverable sugar (ATR), the industry’s yield metric, is expected to decline 2.2% to 134.8 kilograms per metric ton of cane, as excess moisture creates favorable conditions for spittlebug infestations and hampers sugar accumulation, Datagro founder and president Plinio Nastari said.
Despite the lower sugar content, total ATR supply is projected to increase 2.5% to 86.34 million metric tons, as the larger cane crop more than offsets the decline in recoverable sugar per ton.
Nastari presented the forecasts at Datagro’s international sugar and ethanol conference on Monday.
The ethanol outlook includes 10.15 billion liters of corn-based fuel, accounting for 27.2% of Brazil’s projected ethanol production in the 2026/27 season.
Sugar output is expected to fall 5% as the share of cane allocated to the sweetner production is expected to fall to 46.7%, from 50.4% in 2025/26, reflecting a shift in the industry mix toward ethanol.
Datagro also expects a later end to the 2026 harvest, with mills completing 96% of crushing operations by the second half of December. Operations are expected to resume earlier in the first quarter of 2027.
Uncertainty Clouds 2027/28 Outlook
Nastari said it remains too early to make firm projections for the 2027/28 season, citing uncertainty over relative prices, ethanol consumption, oil prices and the extent to which those factors feed through to the market.
“It’s still too early to pin down crushing volumes and ethanol production for next year,” Nastari said.
He said the next 12 to 18 months will be critical in determining how those variables evolve.
Still, Nastari outlined a preliminary outlook for the following crop cycle, with conditions likely to vary considerably over the course of the season.
He expects a strong start to 2027/28, supported by advanced crop development, substantial volumes of carryover cane left unharvested from the previous season and favorable planting conditions.
The middle third of the season is likely to see average crop quality, weaker than in the opening months, as potentially wetter-than-normal harvesting conditions associated with El Niño and increased weed pressure weigh on fields.
For the final third of the season, Nastari urged “considerable caution,” warning of the prospect of a delayed harvest.
This story was translated from the original Portuguese with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff.
