US cattle slaughter in the first seven months of 2026 fell to its lowest level since 2002. But an even more telling indicator is the share of females in the slaughter mix, which declined for a fourth straight year to 48.5%.
That suggests US ranchers are retaining breeding cows and rebuilding herds. It is good news for beef supply over the longer term, potentially in 2028 or 2029. For consumers who need beef today, however, it means tight supplies could persist for several more years.
The US cattle herd stood at 86.2 million head in 2025, its lowest level in 75 years. Beef inventories have also fallen sharply.
Consumers are feeling the squeeze. Ground beef is selling for nearly $7 a pound, close to the record reached in April, while average prices are up 11% this year.
Washington sought to ease some of that pressure in August by partially reopening the border to Mexican cattle, after imports were suspended in May 2025 because of New World screwworm. That helps, but it does not solve the underlying problem: cattle herds cannot be rebuilt in a single quarter.
Against that backdrop, President Donald Trump on Aug. 26 signed a proclamation temporarily increasing the tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings by 300,000 metric tons between September and November.
Product that would otherwise face a 26.4% tariff can enter under the additional quota at the in-quota rate of $44 per metric ton. That is a major competitive advantage for exporters able to secure part of the allocation.
The key detail is where those 300,000 metric tons went.
The entire additional volume was allocated to the “Other Countries” category. The US did not increase country-specific quotas for Australia, New Zealand, Argentina, Uruguay or Japan, nor did it alter arrangements for free-trade partners.
Brazil falls into the “Other Countries” pool — and it has by far the greatest capacity in that group to respond quickly.
Brazil has already demonstrated how much demand it has for the US market. In January, the annual 52,000-metric-ton “Other Countries” quota was exhausted by Brazil and other eligible suppliers in just six days. Brazilian exporters have since continued shipping while paying the higher, out-of-quota tariff.
The new allocation therefore does not create a market that Brazil has yet to develop. It sharply reduces the cost of supplying a market where Brazilian sales were already expanding.
New Segments
Brazil shipped 234,000 metric tons of beef to the US from January through July, up 17% from a year earlier, with fresh beef exports rising almost 24%.
The biggest change could come in the product mix.
Across the four tariff codes covered by the new measure, Brazil had shipped just 1,890 metric tons through July. That compares with 159,900 metric tons from Australia and 98,200 metric tons from New Zealand.
In other words, Brazil has barely participated in the lean-trimmings segment. With the tariff barrier reduced, that could change quickly.
The average price paid by the US for Brazilian trimmings is also among the lowest across suppliers, strengthening Brazil’s position in what is likely to be a price-driven contest for the additional quota.
Brazil has about 50 plants approved to export to the US, giving the industry enough processing capacity to respond rapidly.
Agrifatto consultancy estimates Brazil could use the three-month window to increase exports by about 114,000 metric tons on a carcass-weight-equivalent basis from September through November. That would represent a 214% increase from the same period in 2025.
For full-year 2026, Brazilian beef shipments to the US could reach roughly 578,000 metric tons on the same basis, up 44%, according to Agrifatto’s methodology.
Those are significant numbers, but capturing the opportunity will depend on execution.
Approved slaughterhouses will need to ship quickly, exporters will have to compete aggressively on price under the US government’s monitoring mechanism, and logistics will have to work smoothly. The additional quota is allocated on a first-come, first-served basis, in three monthly tranches of 100,000 metric tons.
The US administration will also monitor whether imports under the expanded quota are being sold at prices 25% below the prevailing market price for lean beef trimmings. The proclamation allows the administration to end the remaining additional quota if that condition is not met.
When the Shortage Ends
The expanded quota should not be seen as a permanent opening for Brazilian beef.
The US government is trying to manage an acute beef shortage while allowing domestic producers time to rebuild the cattle herd. The same Aug. 26 proclamation says US beef production is expected to fall about 4% in 2026 from 2025 levels and stresses the need to retain breeding stock.
That creates a two-track strategy: use additional imports of lean trimmings to ease near-term pressure on ground-beef supplies while supporting a recovery in domestic cattle production over the coming years.
For Brazil, the result is a concrete opportunity — but one with an expiration date.
Brazil also faces its own cattle-cycle shift. Female slaughter has reached unusually high levels in recent years, both in absolute terms and as a share of total slaughter. The latest quarterly data, however, showed the first decline since 2021, according to IBGE, Brazil’s national statistics agency.
That suggests Brazil could enter the upward phase of its cattle cycle over the next two years just as the US begins rebuilding its own production capacity.
Brazil is likely to remain a major supplier to the US while the American herd remains constrained. The more important question is where — and when — US and Brazilian cattle and beef prices converge.
As long as that gap remains wide, Brazil retains an advantage in volume, price and export availability.
Lygia Pimentel is a veterinarian, economist and director at Agrifatto.
(This story was translated from the original Portuguese with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by The AgriBiz editorial staff.)
